Fast Talk presented by MD3 and Five Star Bodies
Fast Talk: Shadowing Late Model predictions
With cold weather shortening Georgia's schedule action as Georgia-Florida Speedweeks inches forward, our roundtable weighs in for the weekly feature presented by MD3 and Five Star Race Cars Bodies (edited for clarity and length):
Can you think of a potential Dirt Late Model parallel for the weather-predicting groundhog seeing its shadow this morning?
Kevin Kovac, DirtonDirt senior writer: I have no data proving that this is true, but I at least have a Groundhog Day-like theory to offer centered on a couple early-season events. I’ll submit that if the the Lucas Oil Late Model Dirt Series’s annual March doubleheader at Ohio’s Atomic Speedway and Indiana’s Brownstown Speedway is completed with high temperatures in the 60s both days and no rain issues causing soft, rough track surfaces, then it means it’s going to be a good weather year for Dirt Late Model racing.
Todd Turner, DirtonDirt managing editor: Surely we can come up with something about as accurate as Punxsutawney Phil? Maybe if any livestock at Jonathan Davenport’s Dirty Dollar Ranch see their shadow, it’ll determine if J.D. will take continue a six-week racing break or join Speedweeks? Perhaps at the beginning of the DIRTcar Summer Nationals the direction of cigarette smoke exhaled by Sam Driggers could suggest the number of consecutive days before a rainout? Or could the coif size of Daulton Wilson’s “Big Perm” determine when he’ll next win? I’m sure all could be as accurate as the groundhog.
Kyle McFadden, DirtonDirt staff reporter: Because modifieds and sprint cars are racing at Volusia Speedway Park tonight, the dirt racing version might be coaxing one of the back-pit alligators out of the pond to see if it spots its shadow. Sprint car racer Brady Bacon recently posted an eye-popping photo of Volusia’s ultra-thick bologna sandwich — hailing it “easily the thickest bologna sandwich I have ever had” — so maybe tossing a few of those near the pond would do the trick.
Aaron Clay, DirtonDirt weekend editor: I’m really reaching here, but maybe this year’s abnormally cold weather can be attributed to the fact that Volusia Speedway Park was able to successfully complete all three days of the DIRTcar Sunshine Nationals without any weather postponements or cancellations, for the first time since Late Models were added to the early-season event in 2021. It’s oddly interesting that every previous Sunshine Nationals weekend has been weather affected until this year, but certainly doesn't explain the recent cold front. Bottom line, it's risky to race during the winter months, regardless of what a ground-dwelling rodent may tell you.
Reflect on the weather-curtailed South Georgia Showdown.
Turner: First off, while it was over a modest field at Needmore, I’m sure Brandon Overton is glad to put a notch in the victory column after logging a mere four wins in 2026. Regarding the weather that was on the fringes of a wintry Southeastern storm, I guess it’s validation for pushing Speedweeks later in the winter, like the Lucas Oil Series did with its post-Daytona 500 slate. Swainsboro’s two-race cancellation adds to the disjointed feel of this new-look Speedweeks. I suspect it’s going to be a while before a Speedweeks vibe develops, if it does at all.
McFadden: I feel for everyone involved who had much to look forward to with the four-race event. In talking with track owners Chance Smith of Needmore and J.J. Williams of Swainsboro for a recent story, I could tell they toiled a little extra this winter preparing for those events. As much as I’d love to see Speedweeks continue to grow in South Georgia, it’s tough to work around the often-frigid Peach State weather this time of year. At least Needmore was able to get a full program in Friday, and Swainsboro still has a Schaeffer’s Spring Nationals event coming up later this month.
Clay: The weekend was a perfect example of why it’s risky to race during the winter months. I certainly salute the track and series for getting Friday's program in, but it felt like the event was never destined to be as big as it could’ve been, because of wintry weather. It was going to be tough to expect a lot of fans to endure the 40-degree temps and Friday’s opener drew 10 fewer cars than last year, not only because of the unfavorable weather, but also likely because it was adjusted to a non-points race at the 11th hour.
Kovac: Running one or four scheduled events certainly was disappointing for the Hunt the Front gang and the Needmore and Swainsboro promoters, but they realized the weather gamble that comes with late-January and early-February racing in Georgia. The possibility of cold, wet conditions is, after all, one of the reasons the Lucas Oil Series decided to move its Golden Isles action from this time frame to early March. The ugly forecast obviously cut into the turnout for Needmore’s single race (just 17 cars entered) and made it an easy call to scrap the remaining three programs. Did it also point out that the majority of full-time teams will sit out Speedweeks events not part of national tours if the conditions aren’t close to ideal? That’s a fair question.
Preview Screven’s Southern All Star action (or look ahead to Volusia 2.0).
McFadden: Much like last weekend’s originally scheduled Speedweeks events in South Georgia, this one feels like a tossup between the weather and who ultimately shows up. The forecast looks manageable for now, with highs in the mid-60s and lows dipping into the 30s. As for car count, Drake Troutman is one of the few, if not the only, drivers planning to run every Speedweeks event. He was slated to race at Needmore before pulling the plug late because of the bitter cold. The Overtons should be in the mix as well. Brandon for sure, and possibly Cody as long as he’s recovered from losing two engines at the Sunshine Nationals.
Clay: Hopefully the weather plays nice in Sylvania, Ga., for this weekend’s 16th annual Winter Freeze. Obviously, Needmore Speedway’s South Georgia Showdown event was meant to kick things off in the region, but I believe many racers opted to stay home because of the unfavorable weather forecast. This year’s Winter Freeze will be live-streamed on FloRacing and should serve as a prime opportunity for Southeast regional competitors like Garrett Smith, Zack Mitchell and Casey Roberts to kick off their season. It's not currently on Brandon Overton’s schedule, but maybe Big Sexy will shoot for back-to-back wins after topping Friday's field at Needmore?
Kovac: The forecast for Screven’s Winter Freeze this weekend appears dry, and, aside from a chilly (but not historically cold) Thursday, the expected temperatures seem reasonable. As another non-national tour Speedweeks event, though, who will opt to compete? Will some teams be anxious to race and be surprise entrants? Screven’s Redd Griffin is putting up some solid money for the tripleheader — topped by Saturday’s finale $25,000-to-win from a purse of over $70,000 — so it could pull some big names. I’d install Brandon Overton as the weekend favorite since he not only loves Screven but will hit the track hot off a victory at Needmore.
Turner: I’ll jump the line and discuss Volusia’s DIRTcar Nationals, which wraps up with six straight nights of Super Late Model action, the final three with the World of Outlaws Late Model Series. In some ways it seems like a quick turnaround from last month’s Sunshine Nationals, and WoO’s early-season schedule at the World Racing Group-operated track means drivers that aren’t crazy about Volusia have to endure another stretch of action at the challenging track. January's dependable surface and efficient programs make me hopeful for an entertaining week.
Amid an extended Speedweeks schedule, do you suspect the most successful drivers will be those who race most often, or teams that are more selective?
Clay: Other than gaining experience at a track that may be revisited (Volusia, for example), I believe teams will largely be rewarded for having a selective Speedweeks schedule. Obviously, Volusia’s Sunshine Nationals winners Tim McCreadie, Hudson O’Neal and Chris Madden will look to add to their Volusia success this season, but I believe most national teams already possess the ability to operate at their highest level, regardless of how much they race in January. I'll be interested to see if Kevin Rumley returns to the track again soon with O’Neal and his No. 6 Rumley Engineering Longhorn, as they may prove it's best to maintain a busy early-season schedule.
McFadden: I think the teams that race Volusia 2.0 and majority, if not all, of Lucas Oil’s portion of Speedweeks have the best shot of putting together the most successful Speedweeks. For starters, that seems to be the most ideal stretch of racing, plus there’s quite a bit of money up for grabs. Last year, Jonathan Davenport was the only driver who came away with a six-figure Speedweeks earnings-wise. I don’t think we’ll see another six-figure earner this year, but I can foresee Ricky Thornton Jr., Devin Moran and Hudson O’Neal vying for earns the most by the end of Speedweeks simply because they’ll be racing the most.
Turner: I’ll guarantee the driver with the best overall winning percentage will be quite selective in choosing when and where to race. Of course, the off-and-on stretch of Georgia and Florida racing also makes it more likely teams will be discriminating when deciding when to unload. There were originally 30 nights of Super Late Model racing scheduled, with a maximum for drivers to compete in 28 of them. I suspect few drivers will eclipse 20-race totals. Will anyone get hot and win three or more races? We’ll see.
Kovac: I’ll break it down into a bit more detail and wonder if drivers who run Volusia’s DIRTcar Nationals next week as well as the full post-Daytona 500 Speedweeks schedule for the Lucas Oil Series will be the most successful. I believe racers who roll into the Lucas Oil stretch with a full week of Volusia racing under their belts will have an edge over those who start with Lucas’s events at All-Tech, but I also imagine that’s why most Lucas Oil regulars will likely run Volusia. It’s really just par for the course when you think about it: the drivers who can still enjoy success while being selective are the experienced veterans like Jonathan Davenport, Chris Madden and Dale McDowell.
Any recent news catch your eye?
Kovac: I don’t think anyone was really surprised when news broke last week that Brandon Overton will run the Lucas Oil Late Model Dirt Series this season with Riggs Motorsports; it seemed that was inevitably the direction the team would go. But does everyone realize that the 34-year-old star has only run a complete national tour schedule four times in his career? Despite all his success in the division — including 20 career WoO victories and 17 triumphs on the Lucas Oil Series — he’s never been in contention to win a national title. His two seasons as a WoO regular came in 2015-16 when he was an up-and-comer and didn’t have the experience or equipment to truly challenge for a points crown (he finished 10th and fourth) and he wasn’t in the championship conversation with Lucas Oil in 2023 (finished sixth driving for Wells Motorsports) and ’25 (seventh running the Riggs Motorsports-fielded Longhorn Factory Team entry). Could this be the year that Overton breaks through and puts himself in the title mix right to the end?
McFadden: Brandon Overton's recommitting to the Lucas Oil tour caught my attention as well, as it sets him up for back-to-back national touring campaigns for the first time in 10 years. The question now is what this season holds. His last two Lucas Oil campaigns haven’t quite met expectations. A top-five points finish feels like a realistic baseline, and if things go well, I could see him cracking the top three. To keep pace with Ricky Thornton Jr., Devin Moran and Hudson O’Neal, he’ll need to win more consistently on the tour, but he’s certainly proven he’s capable of doing that.
Turner: The Hunt the Front gang purchasing its hometown Southern Raceway in Milton, Fla., makes total sense geographically, giving them a nearby foothold in track promotions to go along with their media empire, racing team and Super Late Model series. It also provides a challenge of turning a track with uneven success, at best, into the “destination racetrack” they hope. The Joiner clan knows the track intimately and knows they have a long list of improvements. If they’re in for the long haul, I wouldn’t bet against them elevating the facility to the best it’s been since its 1988 founding.
Clay: The Iowa-based Karl Chevrolet Pro Late Model tour recently released its 2026 schedule, a 25-race slate to be held at 10 venues sprinkled across The Hawkeye State, starting with April 24’s season opener at Marshalltown. Combined with the list created by one of our regular photographers, Mike Ruefer, I count nearly 70 touring events for various Late Model-style cars scheduled in the state of Iowa, which certainly seems like more than in the recent past. It’s uplifting to see a Midwestern area becoming saturated by Late Model events and reminds us that the sport remains healthy in that region.
